1972 Summit Series Replay

REPLAY OF THE EIGHT GAME SERIES

As in real-life, this series could have turned out differently every time it was played. It's really amazing how close this turned out to be ...

Team          W   L   T   GF   GA

Team Canada   4   4   0   32   32

USSR          4   4   0   32   32

Game 1    Game 2    Game 3    Game 4

Game 5    Game 6    Game 7    Game 8

Final Statistics For All Eight Games

80 GAME SEASONAL REPLAY

Just to see which team was really better ...

To conserve on space, I can't post every game here, but here are the final statistics for both teams ... 

Team          W   L   T   GF   GA

USSR         36  32  12  349  324

Team Canada  32  36  12  324  349

TEAM CANADA and TEAM RUSSIA STATISTICS

NOTES / ANALYSIS

NOTES

Some issues had to be dealt with while putting together the statistics that were used to calculate the ratings that the simulator used. The simulator was designed to replay seasons involving multiple teams playing a large schedule (approximately 80 games per team). Since the sample of real life games (8) was so small, and only two teams were involved, some adjustments to the statistics needed to be made. This was necessary to ensure a realistic replay of the series. Basically, I needed to take the edge off of extremely high or low statistics. 

Three items needed to be addressed: 

1) Since 8 games is such a small sampling of games, I needed to minimize the impact of extremely high and low shooting percentages. This was necessary because some players had extremely high or low shooting percentages over the small sampling of games. J.P. Parise is a good example of this. He had a 40% shooting percentage for the series. I lowered his percentage to 26% based on a formula that drives shooting percentages closer to the average shooting percentage of the team that the player played for. Forwards got driven closer to the average shooting percentage for forwards, and defensemen got driven to the average shooting percentage for defenseman.  

 2) Because of the small sample size, the Plus/Minus (P/M) statistics also gave me problems. The simulator uses P/M in the calculation of a player’s defensive ratings. The simulator uses other statistics to determine defensive ratings, but an extremely high or low P/M will have a significant impact upon the defensive rating that is assigned. Thus, each player had his P/M statistic moved closer to the average for his team.

 3) Team Russia had a significant advantage in power play advantages (38 to 23). Because the games involved only two teams and the sample size of games was so small, adjustments needed to be made here as well. Since only two teams are involved here, Team Russia would have had an even greater disparity in power play opportunities during any replay. Thus, power play opportunities needed to be adjusted towards the average number of power play opportunities. This yielded 33 PPAF for Russia and 28 for Canada. Power play goals were adjusted accordingly to keep the same percentages for the power play and penalty kill.

I did not use exact lineups for the replay. I used the simulator’s ability to distribute playing time based on real-life games played. Rosters were created using only those players that played in at least two games (so Mickey Redmond was not included for Team Canada). 18 skaters and two goaltenders were dressed for each replayed game. In real-life Team Canada dressed 17 skaters per game. The USSR dressed either 17 or 18 for the games. You may notice a few fights because the simulator was really designed to simulate regular season professional hockey. 

ANALYSIS

The eight game series went as expected. It was very close, with Canada taking the last game in Russia behind the excellent goaltending of Ken Dryden. This tied the series at 4 games a piece. 

Conversely, in the 80 game season, it was Dryden's performance that cost Canada an opportunity to come out on top. Russia won the 80 game season with a record of 36-32-12. In the real series Dryden won two critical games for Team Canada in Russia, but he was very shaky early in the series. He poor showing early in the series, made his overall performance very average, maybe even below average. This carried over into the replay. Tretiak, who played every game for the Soviet Union, easily outplayed Dryden, who played half the games for Team Canada. Tony Esposito more than held his own against Tretiak, but it wasn't enough.

Another critical factor was Russia's big advantage in power play attempts (358 to 265). Team Canada was actually a +17 at even strength. Had the penalties been more equitable, Team Canada may have been able to win the season. However, this may have led to a more passive style of play, and that might have negatively impacted Team Canada. 

I hope you find these replays interesting. I look forward to any feedback that you might have.

For more information on the Summit Series and International Hockey, please visit the following links:

http://www.1972summitseries.com/index.html

http://www.chidlovski.com/personal/1972/content.htm

http://www.chidlovski.com/personal/1974/index.htm

http://wch2004.com/

http://live82.ihwc.net/english/

http://www.eurohockey.net/

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/SummitSeries/?yguid=79560653

Joe